Stabil infláció és 0 közeli kamat – J. Cochrane hosszú tanulmánya

BlogMadarász Aladár

John H. Cochrane

December 7, 2016 – http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/john.cochrane

This paper combines the talk by that title with a much revised “Do Higher Interest Rates Raise or Lower Inflation,” which no longer exists as a separate paper. The fact that inflation is quiet and stable at zero rates cleanly invalidates the standard old-Keynesian model, which predicts a deflation spiral, and almost as cleanly invalidates new-Keynesian sunspots. New Keynesian price stickiness plus fiscal theory selection works well. Stable inflation suggests a higher rate will raise inflation. That conclusion is very hard to escape, even temporarily. One fiscal theory mechanism with long term debt does it. Even that does not rescue traditional views of monetary policy. It would not be possible or wise to exploit even that negative sign.

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