Válság után – kilábalás és várakozások 1933-ban

BlogMadarász Aladár

Andrew Jalil and Gisela Rua
 

Abstract: This paper uses the historical narrative record to determine whether inflation expectations shifted during the second quarter of 1933, precisely as the recovery from the Great Depression took hold. First, by examining the historical news record and the forecasts of contemporary business analysts, we show that inflation expectations increased dramatically. Second, using an event-studies approach, we identify the impact on financial markets of the key events that shifted inflation expectations. Third, we gather new evidence–both quantitative and narrative–that indicates that the shift in inflation expectations played a causal role in stimulating the recovery.

Keywords: Great Depression, inflation expectations, liquidity trap, narrative evidence, regime change

Finance and Economics Discussion Series
Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs
Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

May 2015

Felhasználási feltételek
Impresszum
Intézményünk országos és nemzetközi hálózati kapcsolatát az NIIF program biztosítja
Magyar Tudományos Akadémia Közgazdaság- és Regionális Tudományi Kutatóközpont Közgazdaság-tudományi Intézet
© Copyright 2017. Minden jog fenntartva.