2020 januárjától a MT/DP Műhelytanulmányok és a Budapest Working Papers sorozat egybeolvadt, és a továbbiakban KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok cím alatt közli az intézet kutatóinak tudományos munkáját. A KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok célja, hogy hozzászólásokat, vitát generáljanak, nem mentek át szakmai ellenőrzésen.

A megszűnt sorozatok tanulmányai az alábbi linkeken érhetőek el:

MT/DP műhelytanulmányok

BWP műhelytanulmányok

2020

2020/38 MAX GILLMAN Income Tax Evasion: Tax Elasticity, Welfare, and Revenue KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2020/38 Income Tax Evasion: Tax Elasticity, Welfare, and Revenue MAX GILLMAN

This paper provides a general equilibrium model of income tax evasion. As functions of the share of income reported, the paper contributes an analytic derivation of the tax elasticity of taxable income, the welfare cost of the tax, and government revenue as a percent of output. It shows how an increase in the tax rate causes the tax elasticity and welfare cost to increase in magnitude by more than with zero evasion. Keeping constant the ratio of income tax revenue to output, as shown to be consistent with certain US evidence, a rising productivity of the goods sector induces less evasion and thereby allows tax rate reduction. The paper derives conditions for a stable share of income tax revenue in output with dependence upon the tax elasticity of reporting income. Examples are provided with less and more productive economies in terms of the tax elasticity of reported income, the welfare cost of taxation and the tax revenue as a percent of output, with sensitivity analysis with respect to leisure preference and goods productivity. Discussion focuses on how the tax evasion analysis may help explain such fiscal tax policy as the postwar US income tax rate reductions with discussion of tax acts and government fiscal multipliers. Fiscal policy with tax evasion included shows how tax rate reduction induces less tax evasion, a lower welfare cost of taxation, and makes for a stable income tax share of output.

Kiadvány letöltése (pdf)
2020/37 Maria Csanádi - Ferenc Gyuris - Wanjun Wang Opening up the black box: Interacting subspheres through enterprise entry and exit in China KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2020/37 Opening up the black box: Interacting subspheres through enterprise entry and exit in China Maria Csanádi - Ferenc Gyuris - Wanjun Wang

In this paper, we scrutinize in the transforming party-state system of China the subtle dynamics of enterprise adaptation to state interventions, which react to hardening external and internal constraints. We use a comparative systemic framework that interprets adaptation in the context of system dynamics and transformation (Csanádi, 2006). We analyze a firm-level database of the Chinese industry from 1998 to 2013 with more than 3.8 million entities. Enterprise sensitivity and adaptation is measured by entries and exits. Taking a systemic approach, we distinguish enterprises that belong to either the party-state network or to the market as two economic sub-spheres defined by our analytical framework. Using the dynamics of entries and exits of industrial enterprises in each of these two spheres, we measure their expansion and contraction as well as that of the speed of both. Different speed allows for the quantification of the dynamics of economic transformation. Our results reveal that increasing frequency of entries and exits, both within and between the two spheres, are interconnected with state interventions reacting to booming and cooling periods of system-specific overinvestment and hardening and softening external constraints (Csanádi, 2015; Csanádi and Gyuris, forthcoming).

Similarly, we reveal a strong connection between enterprise entries and exits and the occasional changes in the acceleration and slowdown of transformation dynamics through alternating periods of retreat and expansion of the network. We confirm the retreat of the network between 1998 and 2009 in terms of number of enterprises, employment, and sales revenues. However, we find that state interventions reacting to the 2008-2009 global crisis as well as Xi Jinping’s anticorruption campaign in 2012-2013 halted the retreat of the network in terms of various statistical indicators. Interventions also changed the moderate annual decline of state-owned capital share among enterprises belonging to the network (a clear trend until 2008), for they led to a “hidden expansion” of the state ownership through a relatively fast increase of its capital share from the early 2010s. Thus, transformation is not continuous, as halts and slowdowns during this process occur in major periods of state intervention.

Neither is the advancement of transformation uniform. Regarding the number, employment, and sales revenue of enterprises, the retreat of the network and the expansion of the market sphere have substantially been more advanced than in case of the allocation of resources, which is selective and biased towards state-owned and large enterprises (Csanádi, 1997; Csanádi and Liu, 2012). These along with the resulting politically rational economic behavior of enterprises are essential characteristics of the party-state system.

Kiadvány letöltése (pdf)
2020/36 MARIA CSANÁDI – FERENC GYURIS Uneven Economic Overheating in a Transforming Party-State During the Global Crisis: The Case of China KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2020/36 Uneven Economic Overheating in a Transforming Party-State During the Global Crisis: The Case of China MARIA CSANÁDI – FERENC GYURIS

We scrutinize the systemic consequences of state intervention triggered by external shocks in the transforming Chinese economy before and after the global crisis. We interpret investment dynamics using a comparative party-state model concept framework. We identify the overinvestment as an outcome of the dynamics of party-state power formed by relations of dependence and interest promotion between party, state and economic decision-makers and of emerging structural motivations inside of this network. Due to the structural and operational characteristics of the party-state network, which are self-similar in time, space and at various aggregation levels, overinvestment and economic overheating can also be detected on the provincial level. This local phenomena is intensified by the specific decentralized pattern of power distribution of the Chinese party-state system. Thus, local intensity of overheating is further increased by major state interventions reacting to external shocks. Overheating is further amplified during economic transformation by market actors adapting to network priorities. Investment swings in both heating and cooling periods hide different forms of behavior in enterprises with different ownership types.

Kiadvány letöltése (pdf)
2020/35 GÁBOR HAJDU – TAMÁS HAJDU Does the unemployment rate moderate the well-being disadvantage of the unemployed? Within-region estimates from the European Social Survey KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2020/35 Does the unemployment rate moderate the well-being disadvantage of the unemployed? Within-region estimates from the European Social Survey GÁBOR HAJDU – TAMÁS HAJDU

Using eight waves of the European Social Survey, we analysed how the local unemployment rate influences the well-being disadvantages of the unemployed. We estimate region fixed effects and slopes models that, unlike the standard region fixed effects approach, provide an unbiased estimate of the cross-level interaction term (the term between being unemployed and the unemployment rate). We find that the satisfaction of unemployed people (relative to employed people) is lower when the unemployment rate is higher. The results are similar for the depression scores, but the differences are smaller and insignificant regarding the happiness scores. Our results do not support the “social norm of unemployment” hypothesis that states that the negative impacts of unemployment are smaller if the unemployment rate is higher. In contrast, these results are in line with the argument that worse re-employment perspectives in high-unemployment regions may be particularly harmful to unemployed people. We note that these results do not contradict the claim that, in regions with a weaker social norm to work, unemployed people may be more satisfied. Instead, the results suggest that the unemployment rate is not a good proxy for the social norm to work.

Kiadvány letöltése (pdf)
2020/28 LÁSZLÓ CZALLER – RIKARD ERIKSSON – BALÁZS LENGYEL Automation risk along individual careers: static and dynamic upgrades in cities KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2020/28 Automation risk along individual careers: static and dynamic upgrades in cities LÁSZLÓ CZALLER – RIKARD ERIKSSON – BALÁZS LENGYEL

Automation risk of workers prevails less in large cities compared to small cities, but little is known about the drivers of this emerging urban phenomenon. We examine the role of cities on changes in automation risk through individual careers of workers by separating labour mobility to a city from labour mobility within a city. Applying panel data representing all Swedish workers from 2005 to 2013 we provide new evidence that working in, or moving to, metropolitan areas lower automation risk of workers. We find that high-skilled workers enjoy dynamic occupation upgrades in cities and benefit from accumulating experience in the urban labour market, while low-skilled workers experience a single static upgrade when moving to a city.

Kiadvány letöltése (pdf)
2020/34 LÁSZLÓ LŐRINCZ - GUILHERME KENJI CHIHAYA - ANIKÓ HANNÁK - DÁVID TAKÁCS - BALÁZS LENGYEL - RIKARD ERIKSSON GLOBAL CONNECTIONS AND THE STRUCTURE OF SKILLS IN LOCAL CO-WORKER NETWORKS KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2020/34 GLOBAL CONNECTIONS AND THE STRUCTURE OF SKILLS IN LOCAL CO-WORKER NETWORKS LÁSZLÓ LŐRINCZ - GUILHERME KENJI CHIHAYA - ANIKÓ HANNÁK - DÁVID TAKÁCS - BALÁZS LENGYEL - RIKARD ERIKSSON

Social connections that reach distant places are advantageous for individuals and firms by providing access to new skills and knowledge. However, systematic evidence on how firms work up global knowledge access is still missing. In this paper, we analyse how global work connections relate to differences in the skill composition of employees within companies. We gather survey data from 10% of workers in a local industry in Sweden and complement this with digital trace data to map co-worker networks and skill composition. This unique combination of data and features allows us to quantify global connections of employees and measure the degree of skill-similarity and skill-relatedness to co-workers. We find that the workers with extensive local networks typically have related skills to others in the region and to their co-workers. Workers with more global ties typically bring in less related skills to the region. These results provide new insights to the composition of skills within knowledge intensive firms by connecting the geography of networks contacts to the diversity of skills accessible through them.

Kiadvány letöltése (pdf)
2020/33 ZOLTÁN PÁPAI - ALIZ MCLEAN - PÉTER NAGY - GÁBOR SZABÓ - GERGELY CSORBA THE IMPACT OF NETWORK SHARING ON COMPETITION: THE CHALLENGES POSED BY EARLY VERSUS MATURE 5G KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2020/33 THE IMPACT OF NETWORK SHARING ON COMPETITION: THE CHALLENGES POSED BY EARLY VERSUS MATURE 5G ZOLTÁN PÁPAI - ALIZ MCLEAN - PÉTER NAGY - GÁBOR SZABÓ - GERGELY CSORBA

The rollout of fifth generation mobile networks is progressing around the world, but 5G looks especially expensive compared to previous generations. Network sharing between two or more mobile operators is an obvious way to attain significant cost savings, but may also raise competition concerns. This paper first distinguishes between early and mature 5G, and then discusses the expected changes mature 5G brings to the assessment of active mobile network sharing agreements from a competition policy point of view. We focus on the three main concerns where 5G may bring the most significant changes in the evaluation compared to 4G: service differentiation, cost commonality between the parties and the parties’ ability and incentives to grant access to critical inputs to downstream competitors. For each of these concerns, we show that they are not easy to substantiate and in some cases the concerns may even become less grave than under 4G.

Legfrissebb változat (2020.07.20.)
2020/31 GÁBOR HAJDU – TAMÁS HAJDU The long-term impact of restricted access to abortion on children’s socioeconomic outcomes KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2020/31 The long-term impact of restricted access to abortion on children’s socioeconomic outcomes GÁBOR HAJDU – TAMÁS HAJDU

We examine the long-term consequences of restricted access to abortion following a change in the Hungarian abortion law in 1974. Due to a change that restricted access to legal abortions, the number of induced abortions decreased from 169,650 to 102,022 between 1973 and 1974, whereas the number of live births increased from 156,224 to 186,288. We analyze the effects on the adult outcomes of the affected newborns (educational attainment, labor market participation, teen fertility). We use matched large-scale, individual-level administrative datasets of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (population census 2011; live birth register), and we estimate the effects by comparing children born within a short timespan around the law change. We apply a difference-in-differences approach, building on the special rules of the new law that, despite the severe restriction, still made abortion permissible for selected groups of women. We control for the compositional change in the population of parents, rule out the effect of (unobserved) time trends and other potential behavioral responses to the law change, and draw causal inferences. We find that restricted access to abortion had, on average, a negative impact on the socioeconomic outcomes of the affected children. Children born after the law change have had worse educational outcomes, a greater likelihood of being unemployed at age 37, and a higher probability of being a teen parent.

Kiadvány letöltése (pdf)
2020/32 TAMÁS HAJDU – GÁBOR HAJDU Temperature, climate change and birth weight: Evidence from Hungary KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2020/32 Temperature, climate change and birth weight: Evidence from Hungary TAMÁS HAJDU – GÁBOR HAJDU

We analyze the impact of in utero temperature exposure on the birth weight and prevalence of low birth weight using administrative data on singleton live births conceived between 2000 and 2016 in Hungary. We find that exposure to high temperatures during pregnancy decreases birth weight, but its impact on the probability of low birth weight is weaker. Exposure to one additional hot day (mean temperature >25°C) during the gestation period reduces birth weight by 0.5 grams. The second and third trimesters appear to be slightly more sensitive to temperature exposure than the first trimester. We project that climate change will decrease birth weight and increase the prevalence of low birth weight by the mid-21st century. The projected impacts are the strongest for newborns conceived during the winter and spring months.

 

Legfrissebb változat (2020.07.09.)
2020/30 LÁSZLÓ CZALLER – RIKARD ERIKSSON – BALÁZS LENGYEL Automation risk along individual careers: static and dynamic upgrades in cities KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2020/30 Automation risk along individual careers: static and dynamic upgrades in cities LÁSZLÓ CZALLER – RIKARD ERIKSSON – BALÁZS LENGYEL

Automation risk of workers prevails less in large cities compared to small cities, but little is known about the drivers of this emerging urban phenomenon. We examine the role of cities on changes in automation risk through individual careers of workers by separating labour mobility to a city from labour mobility within a city. Applying panel data representing all Swedish workers from 2005 to 2013 we provide new evidence that working in, or moving to, metropolitan areas lower automation risk of workers. We find that high-skilled workers enjoy dynamic occupation upgrades in cities and benefit from accumulating experience in the urban labour market, while low-skilled workers experience a single static upgrade when moving to a city.

Kiadvány letöltése (pdf)
2020/29 HÁLÓ BUDA – REIZER BALÁZS A sorkatonaság munkaerőpiaci hatásai Magyarországon KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2020/29 A sorkatonaság munkaerőpiaci hatásai Magyarországon HÁLÓ BUDA – REIZER BALÁZS

Dolgozatunkban adminisztratív járulékadatok segítségével vizsgáljuk a sorkatonaságban való részvétel bérekre gyakorolt hatását. Elemzésünkben különbségek-különbsége módszerrel vizsgáltuk, hogy változik a 2003-ban és 2004-ben bevonuló sorkatonák bére a be nem vonuló munkatársaikhoz képest. A sorkatonák bevonulás előtt 20 százalékkal kevesebbet kerestek, mint a hasonló tulajdonságokkal rendelkező ám be nem vonuló munkavállalók. A sorkatonaság után ez a bérhátrány kb. 3 százalékos bérelőnnyé változik. Mivel a sorkatonaság csak 6 hónapig tartott, ezért nem gondoljuk, hogy a gyors bérnövekedés csak a termelékenység növekedése miatt következett be. A legvalószínűbb magyarázat az, hogy cégek diszkriminálták a sorkatonákat bevonulás előtt, vagy pedig a cégek és a későbbi sorkatonák képességei nem illettek össze.

Kiadvány letöltése (pdf)
2020/27 PÉTER ELEK – ANIKÓ BÍRÓ Regional differences in diabetes across Europe – regression and causal forest analyses KRTK-KTI Műhelytanulmányok Kiadvány letöltése

2020/27 Regional differences in diabetes across Europe – regression and causal forest analyses PÉTER ELEK – ANIKÓ BÍRÓ

We examine regional differences in diabetes within Europe, and relate them to variations in socio-economic conditions, comorbidities, health behaviour and diabetes management. Using SHARE (Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe) data, first, we estimate multivariate regressions, where the outcome variables are diabetes prevalence, diabetes incidence, and weight loss due to diet as an indicator of management. Second, we study the heterogeneous impact of the risk factors on the regional differences in incidence with causal random forests.

Compared to Western Europe, the transition odds to diabetes is 2.3-fold in Southern and 2.7-fold in Eastern Europe, which decreases to 2.0 and 2.1 after adjusting for individual characteristics. The remaining differences are explained by country-specific healthcare indicators. Based on the causal forest approach, the adjusted East-West difference is essentially zero for the lowest risk groups (tertiary education, no hypertension, no overweight) and increases substantially with these risk factors, but the South-West difference is much less heterogeneous. The prevalence of diet-related weight loss around the time of diagnosis also exhibits regional variation. The results suggest that more emphasis should be put on diabetes prevention among high-risk individuals in Eastern Europe.

Kiadvány letöltése (pdf)

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